With B117 the EU and the US face a choice: It being widespread by the end of January or mid March. It’s correct that B117 doesn’t cause worse cases. But it’s also correct that it causes a lot more. All things being equal, that would lead to seven times more deaths within one month — coming from our already terrible baseline.
Yes, you read that right: 30.000 deaths per month (current German expectation) would become 210.000 deaths. Per month.
We need to act really, really fast and really, really harsh. From https://www.theatlantic.com/.../virus-mutation.../617531/
1. Here’s the math:
“Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections — a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month — assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time.”
2. Here’s why we need to act fast:
“For exponential processes, small initial differences can mean gargantuan differences in the long run, and we are not helpless. Maybe all of that could delay this new variant’s widespread establishment until February or even March.”